NVIDIA Fiscal 2026 10-K Adds New Export Control Risks

NVIDIA has added a passage on potential export controls affecting its business operations in China and Taiwan, as well as concerns over AI demand growth.

NVIDIA filed its fiscal 2026 10-K on February 25, 2026. Set against the fiscal 2025 filing, the risk factors section has 28 new passages, 19 dropped passages, 5 passages where the wording got stronger or softer and 11 lighter rewordings. Everything quoted below is the company's own text, word for word.

New This Year

Export Control

The export controls applicable to China are complex and address a variety of parameters, including the total processing performance of a chip, the “performance density” of a chip, the interconnect bandwidth of a chip, and the memory bandwidth of a chip. Under the current rules and geopolitical landscape, we are unable to create and deliver a competitive product for China’s data center market that receives approval from both the USG and the Chinese government. As of the end of fiscal year 2026, we were effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center computing/compute market, and our effective foreclosure from the China market helped our competitors build larger developer and customer ecosystems to challenge us worldwide. […]

Export Control

In May 2025, the USG announced that it would rescind the AI Diffusion IFR and implement a replacement rule. The scope, timing, and requirements of the forthcoming rule remain uncertain. The replacement rule may impose new restrictions on our products or operations and/or add license requirements that could have a material impact on our business, operating results, and financial condition. For example, in October 2025, the Senate passed the “GAIN AI Act” in the NDAA. The GAIN AI Act would restrict the Trump Administration’s ability to adapt the Biden Administration’s export control rules, and could also allow private U.S. persons to review and overturn licensing and foreign policy decisions made by the Trump Administration.

Export Control

As a result, export controls have in the past and may in the future negatively impact demand for our products and services not only in China, but also in other markets, such as Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Export controls increase the risk of investing in U.S. advanced semiconductor products, because by the time a new product is ready for market, it may be subject to new unilateral export controls restricting its sale, resulting in excess inventory and purchase obligations as we recently experienced with the H20. At the same time, such controls may increase investment in foreign competitors, which would be less likely to be restricted by U.S. controls.

Export Control

The increasingly complex export controls impose complex and burdensome compliance obligations on our partners, suppliers, and customers. While we seek to strictly comply with all applicable export control regulators, reports of diversion of controlled products, even when unsubstantiated and untrue, may negatively impact our business, relationships with partners and customers, and our reputation. Incorrect allegations that our compliance efforts satisfy the letter but not the “spirit” of the applicable regulations, as well as incorrect allegations that legitimate and appropriate business is using supposed “loopholes” in the export controls may negatively impact our business, relationships with partners and customers, and our reputation.

Export Control

and financial results. Export controls targeting GPUs and semiconductors associated with AI have subjected and may in the future subject downstream users of our products to restrictions on the use, resale, repair, or transfer of our products, negatively impacting our business and financial results. Controls could negatively impact our cost and/or ability to provide services such as NVIDIA AI cloud services and could impact the cost and/or ability for our CSPs and customers to provide services to their end customers, even outside China.

Export Control

Given the increasing strategic importance of AI and rising geopolitical tensions, the USG has changed and may again change the export control rules at any time and further subject a wider range of our products to export restrictions and licensing requirements, negatively impacting our business and financial results. In the event of such change, we may be unable to sell our inventory of such products and may be unable to develop replacement products not subject to the licensing requirements.

There are 22 more new passages in the filing.

Wording That Changed

New words in this year's text are in bold.

Export Control, stronger

Fiscal 2025:

Our competitive position has been harmed by the existing export controls, and our competitive position and future results may be further harmed, over the long term, if there are further changes in the USG’s export controls, including further expansion of the geographic, customer, or product scope of the controls, if customers purchase product from competitors, if customers develop their own internal solution, if we are unable to provide contractual warranty or other extended service obligations, if the USG does not grant licenses in a timely manner or denies licenses to significant customers or if we incur significant transition costs. Even if the USG grants any requested licenses, the licenses may be temporary or impose burdensome conditions that we or our customers or end users cannot or choose not to fulfill. […]

Fiscal 2026:

Our competitive position has been harmed by export controls, and our competitive position and future results will be further harmed, over the long term, if the restrictions remain in place or are expanded in geographic, customer, or product scope, if customers purchase product from competitors, if customers develop their own internal solution, if we are unable to provide contractual warranty or other extended service obligations, if the USG does not grant licenses in a timely manner or denies licenses to significant customers or if we incur significant transition costs. The licensing process may not be resolved before significant business opportunities evaporate. […]

Export Control, stronger

Fiscal 2025:

Additionally, restrictions imposed by the Chinese government on the duration of gaming activities and access to games may adversely affect our Gaming revenue, and increased oversight of digital platform companies may adversely affect our Data Center revenue. The Chinese government may also encourage customers to purchase from our China-based competitors, or impose restrictions on the sale to certain customers of our products, or any products containing components made by our partners and suppliers. For example, the Chinese government announced restrictions relating to certain sales of products containing certain products made by Micron, a supplier of ours. […]

Fiscal 2026:

Additionally, restrictions imposed by the Chinese government on the duration of gaming activities and access to games may adversely affect our Gaming revenue, and even if we are able to participate in the China data center compute market, increased oversight of digital platform companies may adversely affect our Data Center revenue. The Chinese government has encouraged customers to purchase from our China-based competitors and discouraged customers from purchasing, importing, or using our data center products, including any China-specific product designed to comply with U.S. export controls. As another example, an agency of the Chinese government announced an Action Plan that endorses new standards regarding the compute performance per watt and per memory bandwidth of accelerators used in new and renovated data centers in China. […]

Export Control, stronger

Fiscal 2025:

Such restrictions could include additional unilateral or multilateral export controls on certain products or technology, including but not limited to AI technologies. As geopolitical tensions have increased, semiconductors associated with AI, including GPUs and related products, are increasingly the focus of export control restrictions proposed by stakeholders in the U.S. and its allies. The United States has imposed unilateral worldwide controls restricting GPUs and associated products, and it is likely that additional unilateral or multilateral controls will be adopted. […]

Fiscal 2026:

Such restrictions could include additional unilateral or multilateral export controls on certain products or technology, including but not limited to AI technologies. As geopolitical tensions have increased, semiconductors associated with AI, including GPUs and related products, are increasingly the focus of export control restrictions proposed by stakeholders in the U.S. and its allies. The United States has imposed unilateral worldwide controls restricting GPUs and associated products, and it is likely that additional unilateral or multilateral controls will be adopted. […]

AI Demand, softer

Fiscal 2025:

We offer enterprise customers NVIDIA DGX Cloud services, which include cloud-based infrastructure, software and services for training and deploying AI models. We have partnered with CSPs to host such software and services in their data centers, and we entered and may continue to enter into multi-year cloud service agreements to support these offerings and our research and development activities. The timing and availability of these cloud services have changed and may continue to shift, impacting our revenue, expenses, and development timelines. NVIDIA DGX Cloud services may not be successful and will take time, resources, and investment. We also offer or plan to offer standalone software solutions, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise, NVIDIA Omniverse, NVIDIA DRIVE, and other software products. […]

Fiscal 2026:

We entered into multi-year cloud service agreements to support our research and development activities. The timing and availability of these cloud services have changed and may continue to shift, impacting our revenue, expenses, and development timelines, and these arrangements may not deliver anticipated benefits. We also offer or plan to offer standalone software solutions, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise, NVIDIA Omniverse, NVIDIA DRIVE, and other software products. These business models or strategies may not be successful, and we may fail to sell any meaningful standalone software or services. We may incur significant costs and may not achieve any significant revenue from these offerings.

Geopolitical, stronger

Fiscal 2025:

We are monitoring the impact of the geopolitical conflict in and around Israel on our operations, including the health and safety of our approximately 4,700 employees in the region who primarily support the research and development, operations, and sales and marketing of our networking products. Some of our employees in the region have been on active military duty for an extended period and may continue to be absent, which may cause disruption to our product development or operations. We have not experienced significant impact or expense to our business; however, if the conflict is further extended or expanded, it could impact future product development, operations, and revenue or create other uncertainty for our business.

Fiscal 2026:

We are monitoring the impact of the geopolitical conflict in and around Israel on our operations, including the health and safety of our approximately 6,000 employees in the region who primarily support the research and development, operations, and sales and marketing of our networking products. We have experienced periods where some of our employees in the region have been on active military duty for an extended period, which caused limited disruption to our product development or operations. We have not experienced significant impact or expense to our business; however, if the conflict is further extended or expanded, it could impact future product development, operations, and revenue or create other uncertainty for our business.

Dropped From Last Year

Export Control

Given the increasing strategic importance of AI and rising geopolitical tensions, the USG has changed and may again change the export control rules at any time and further subject a wider range of our products to export restrictions and licensing requirements, negatively impacting our business and financial results. In the event of such change, we may be unable to sell our inventory of such products and may be unable to develop replacement products not subject to the licensing requirements, effectively excluding us from all or part of the China market, as well as other impacted markets, including the Middle East and countries designated “Tier 2” by the AI Diffusion IFR. […]

Export Control

Following these 2022 export controls, we transitioned some operations, including certain testing, validation, and supply and distribution operations out of China and Hong Kong. Any future transitions could be costly and time consuming, and adversely affect our research and development and supply and distribution operations, as well as our revenue, during any such transition period. We expanded our Data Center product portfolio to offer new solutions, including those for which the USG does not require a license or advance notice before each shipment. To the extent that a customer requires products covered by the licensing requirements, we may seek a license for the customer. However, the licensing process is time-consuming. […]

Export Control

On January 15, 2025, the USG published the “AI Diffusion” IFR in the Federal Register. After a 120-day delayed compliance period, the IFR will, unless modified, impose a worldwide licensing requirement on all products classified under Export Control Classification Numbers, or ECCNs, 3A090.a, 4A090.a, or corresponding .z ECCNs, including all related software and technology. Any system that incorporates one or more of the covered integrated circuits, or ICs, (including but not limited to NVIDIA DGX, HGX, and MGX systems) will be covered by the new licensing requirement. The licensing requirement will include future NVIDIA ICs, boards, or systems classified with ECCN 3A090.a or 4A090.a, or corresponding .z ECCNs, achieving certain total processing performance and/or performance density.

Export Control

•government actions or changes in governmental policies, such as export controls, increased restrictions on gaming usage, or tariffs; and

China and Taiwan

On October 23, 2023, the USG informed us that the licensing requirements were effective immediately for shipments of our A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S products (removing the grace period granted by the official rule). Blackwell systems, such as GB200 NVL 72 and NVL 36 as well as B200 are also subject to these requirements and therefore require a license for any shipment to certain entities and to China and Country Groups D1, D4, and D5, excluding Israel. To date, we have not received licenses to ship these restricted products to China.

Tariff

The AI Diffusion IFR would expose U.S. providers and the U.S. industry to an enhanced risk of retaliation from other countries, in the form of tariffs, import/export controls, or other regulatory actions.

13 more passages from last year's section did not come back.

Both filings are on EDGAR: fiscal 2026 10-K and fiscal 2025 10-K.